نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 استاد گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
2 استادیار گروه بین رشته ای فناوری، دانشکده علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
3 استادیار گروه مدیریت کسب و کار، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
4 دانشجوی دکتری آینده پژوهی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
عنوان مقاله [English]
One of the most important steps in the prospecting is identifying and analyzing the effective trends. In this article, the price of crude oil has been studied on a case by case basis. Accordingly, the main goal of the present study is to identify the key factors affecting the future of crude oil prices in the horizon of 1410 A.H.S. Therefore, after conducting library studies and reviewing valid documents and sources and interviewing experts, a list of key trends affecting the future of crude oil prices was obtained and by using the Delphi method, the number of clinicians decreased from 68 to 40. Then, using the structural analysis method, the interaction effect matrix was designed and entered into the matrix by forming a panel of 11 experts and consensus about their impact on the factors affecting each other. By analyzing the data derived from the matrix with the microfilm software, each factors impact has been assessed, efecctive strategic trends have been identified, and it has been determined that trends such as US policy, Russian energy diplomacy, India and China's growth, the fragility of The Middle East and North Africa, the solidarity and cohesion of the European Union, the supply and demand of oil and its fluctuations have the greatest impact on the future of crude oil prices.