ارائه مدل علی معلولی مدیریت ریسک‌ها در فرآیند توسعه خانواده محصول با استفاده از روش نظریه داده بنیاد ومدلسازی معادلات ساختاری : مطالعه موردی صنعت خودرو ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه مهندسی صنایع دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیارگروه مهندسی صنایع دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار گروه مهندسی صنایع دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

چکیده

فرآیند توسعه خانواده محصول که با ایجاد گروهی از محصولات مرتبط با هم، با اجزاء ثابت و بخشی با اجزاء متفاوت در هر محصول تجلی می یابد، پاسخی به نیازهای متنوع بازار و گروه‌های مختلف مشتری می‌باشد. این فرایند، همواره با ریسک‌هایی مواجه است و معمولاً عدم شناخت ریسک‌های مسبب و روابط مابین آنها همچنین فرض مستقل بودن هر ریسک منجر به کاهش اثر‌بخشی اقدامات مدیریت ریسک‌ و انحراف از دستیابی به نتایج مورد انتظار می‌گردد. این تحقیق ضمن تعیین مراحل این فرایند و شناخت ابعاد محیط بیرون و درون در هر مرحله با استفاده از تجربیات 18 خبره در صنایع خودروسازی، ریسک‌های فرایند توسعه خانواده محصول را با کمک نظریه داده بنیاد احصاء نموده است. روش مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری برای تعیین روابط متقابل بین ریسک‌ها و یافتن ریسک‌های مسبب استفاده و نتیجه حاصل از مطالعات و محاسبات صورت گرفته منجر به شناخت‌ ریسک‌های‌ نیاز، الزامات، عملکرد، طراحی، برنامه‌ریزی، ساخت/برون‌سپاری و مالی گردید. همچنین ریسک‌‌های خوشه‌بندی مشتریان، مدولاریتی و ریسک فنی مشخصات طراحی قطعات برای اولین‌بار مختص این فرایند شناسایی گردیدند. نتایج نشان می دهد که مدیریت ریسک‌ در مراحل ابتدایی، منجر به احتمال بروز کمتر ریسک‌های مراحل پایانی می‌گردد. برای مواجهه اثربخش با ریسک هدف بطور مثال ریسک مالی، می‌بایست ریسک‌های تاثیرگذار بر آن یعنی ریسک‌های برنامه‌ریزی و ساخت/ برون‌سپاری را مدیریت نمود. مدیران اجرایی می‌توانند با تمرکز بر کنترل ریسک‌هایی که بعنوان علت ریشه‌ای، ریسک هدف عمل می‌نمایند، به موفقیت بیشتری دست یافته و با اطمینان بیشتری به پیش روند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Providing a causal model of risk management in the product family development process by grounded theory and structural equation modeling: Case study, The Iranian automotive industry

نویسندگان [English]

  • Majid Kordbacheh 1
  • Fekri Roksana 2
  • Golamreza Esmaeilian 3
1 Ph.D. in Industrial engineering, Dept. of Industrial Engineering Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Prof., Dept. of Industrial Engineering Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Prof., Dept. of Industrial Engineering Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The product family development process is a response to the diversified needs of markets and different customer clusters by a group of products with two fixed section part and variable section. The process is always faced with risks, usually not knowing the causative risks and the relationships between them. Also, the independent risk assumption leads to effectiveness decrease and deviations from achieving the expected results. Pay attention to the experiences of experts in mitigating risks, will lead to success. Along determining the dimensions of external and internal context, risks of the product family development process are identified by focusing on the grounded theory based on the experiences of 18 experts in Iranian automotive industry. A structural equation modeling approach was used to determining the interaction of risks and recognizing the risks that cause other risks. The results of studies and calculations led to recognition of needs risk, requirement risk, performance risk, design risk, scheduling risk, manufacturing/outsourcing risk and financial risk, also clustering of customers risk, parts design feature technical risk and modularity risk are firstly specified to the product family development process. Mitigate of risks in the early stages, leads to less occurrence probability of late-stage risks. As example to reduce financial risk, the risks that affect it, namely scheduling risk and manufacturing / outsourcing risk, must be managed. The executive managers could achieve greater success by focusing on controlling the root cause of objective risk, and make progress with more certainty.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Product family developing process
  • Risk management
  • Grounded theory
  • Structural equation modeling
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