Crude Oil Price Scenario Based on Identifying Key Factors and Analyzing the Actors' Interactions

Document Type : Research Article (Original Article)


1 Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

4 PhD candidate of Futures Studies, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran


The present paper seeks to provide possible scenarios for future oil prices up to the horizon of 1410 by identifying key global effective factors on a global scale. The data of this paper include 68 factors that are obtained by combining Elite interview and Delphi method. In two stages, the main factors are identified, refined or combined. Finally, 40 factors and main trends were identified and collected through questionnaires, their interactions, and analyzed using the microarray software. Finally, six factors are identified as key events and impacts that have the most impact on future crude oil prices. Finally, 24 possible states were defined for 6 factors. Due to the size of the matrix and its dimensions (24*24), the scenario planner, 3375 combined scenarios based on the data entered in the analysis questionnaire and 11 strong or probable scenarios, 29 scenarios with high adaptability (incredible scenarios) and 39 scenarios Poor (possible scenarios) reported. Which was finally descriptively named after the certification and validation by Chaosanario's experts with titles, the Blue Whale, the Ellenino Storm, the Al-Dawraudo Land, and the legendary Three Brothers.