Modelling and Strategic Analysis of Pension Crisis in Iran: A Game Theory Approach

Document Type : Research Article (Original Article)

Authors

1 PhD candidate of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.

Abstract

Imbalance challenge between resources and expenditures in pension funds and its negative consequences, especially the increasing deficit of funds and consequently increase the government's commitment in this area, has become the implementation of reforms in these funds inevitable. But, the main question is that why despite understanding crisis for different actors of retirement scope, these reforms has not been implemented yet? The main cause of this issue should be searched in complex and multi-dimensional nature of retirement. In such complex issues, the analysis of game formed between different actors is very important and crucial with the aim of understanding complexity and explaining the problem. Accordingly, this study models and analyses the game which is formed between various stakeholders of retirement in Iran by using one of the game theory models called graph models to resolve the dispute as an appropriate tool for modelling and analyzing complex problems and based on that expresses the most likely outcomes of current crisis and also finally provides guidelines to solve this crisis. The results of modelling showed that with current players and their current preferences, the most likely and most stable possible outcome for pension crisis is continuation of the status quo and accordingly any structural or parametric reform, which is proposed in this playground, is less likely to be operational. Also, the results obtained by using reverse game analysis indicates that preventing continuation of the status quo and getting out of the current impasse requires adopting policies aimed at changing preferences of pension field actors and bringing them to carry out the reforms. Achieving to such goal needs involvement of senior government decision-makers, policy formulation and creation of new administrative structures. For this purpose, the government should assign some part of its authority to a cross-factional, independent and provident institution with responsibility for inter-generational affairs in pension area known as the regulators or regulatory body pensions and supervising the implementation of regulations until this institution policy the necessary policies to exit the current crisis regardless of the political and factional problems.

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History

  • Receive Date: 01 August 2017
  • Accept Date: 01 August 2017

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