The Model of Layer Strategy Development Based on Scenario Building in Uncertainty Conditions

Document Type : Research Article (Original Article)


1 Professor, Faculty of Humanities, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran.

2 PhD candidate of Futures Studies, Research Institute for Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

3 Associate Professor, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Management, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, Iran.

4 Assistant Professor, Supreme National Defense University, Tehran, Iran.


All existing views and writings about strategy development using scenario building suffers fantasy and “simple but impossible to imitate” thinking which arises of absence of coherence and consensus on the origins of scenario building which leads to distress and high diversity, deep confusion and serious rift. This article by accepting the operational advantages of existing methodologies, is up to establish the scenario building in a way that is more cognitive, more fundamental and more comprehensive and deals with organizing these features in a two-layer model. It also focuses on the integration of and fundamental requirements of scenario building, along with more practical and more known steps. This two-layer model, is combined with traditional causal scientific positivism in the first layer, the second layer post-structuralist semanalysis and claims that with starting symbolic and continuous effort, helps the organization in terms of uncertainty, to discover the truth or building more robust long term truth. We used Dubin technique (Dubin, 1978), to organize searching steps and using the citation method on the basis of this methodology proposes some points to verify long term and various aspects of method.