Future Study on Energy and Evaluation of Energy Management Strategies in Iran by Means of Scenario Planning

Chaharsooghi, Seyed Kamal; Rahmati, Mehrdad; Memarpour, Mahdi; Rajabzadeh Ghatari, Ali

Future Study on Energy and Evaluation of Energy Management Strategies in Iran by Means of Scenario Planning

Document Type : Research Article (Original Article)

Authors

¹ Associate Professor, Faculty of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.

² MSc in Industrial Eigineering, Faculty of Technology and Engineering, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran.

³ MSc in Industrial Eigineering, Faculty of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.

⁴ Associate Professor, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Change is the only unchangeable element of life in the world. "Future" is full of uncertainties; so the indentification of critical uncertainties is a main duty of scenario designers. The scenarios are like one of the first and multifunctional tools in thought process and strategic management which strategists, leaders and organization managers apply them for decision-making in uncertainties ahead. "Scenario planning" is a regular method for finding of key promoter forces in the fast changeable text with extraordinary elaborations and multiple uncertainties. According to the role of providence in energy district, in this paper, in addition to the explanation of said categories, the new approach is analyzed in scenario planning processes in order to evaluate "Country's Energy Management Strategies” it is also necessary to investigate main problem appointment, identifications of uncertainties, combination and creation of scenarios and evaluation of said strategies again. The result of this research shows that the strategies are only useful in one or two scenarios and weak in other. Therefore, reviewing and reformulating strategies seem necessary for optimum energy management in country.

Keywords