Journal of Improvement Management

Journal of Improvement Management

A Framework for the Identification, Prioritization, and Assessment of Emerging Technologies in Alignment with the Objectives of Iran's Industrial Policy

Document Type : Research Article (Original Article)

Authors
1 M.A. Student, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Industrial Management, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Ph.D. Student, Industrial Strategies, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 Professor, Department of Complex Systems Management, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Management, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, Iran.
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Business Management, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Management, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/jmi.2026.557075.3257
Abstract
Targeted industrial development in the era of emerging technologies requires the convergence of industrial policy and technology development strategies. However, the current formulation of industrial development goals in Iran suffers from the absence of a coherent technological mapping, and the systematic integration and prioritization of emerging technologies within industrial policy objectives remains a critical gap. This study aims to address the disjunction between industrial and technological policies, as well as the lack of structured prioritization of emerging technologies in Iran’s industrial policy framework, by proposing a comprehensive model for the identification, ranking, and evaluation of technologies. To this end, 151 emerging technologies were extracted from nine reputable international institutions and categorized into fourteen major technological domains. Subsequently, using twenty-three economic, social, technological, environmental, and policy indicators, and employing the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) as a multi-criteria decision-making method, the identified technologies were ranked according to their compatibility with Iran’s industrial ecosystem. The validity and coherence of the results were verified through a focus group of six experts in technology policy and foresight to ensure analytical consistency and research reliability. The findings indicate that renewable energy technologies, 3D printing, and artificial intelligence possess the highest potential for creating competitive advantage, strengthening technological ecosystems, and aligning with the strategic objectives of Iran’s industrial policy.
Keywords
Subjects

اصغرپور، محمدجواد. 1377. تصمیم‌گیری‌های چندمعیاره. چاپ اول. تهران: مؤسسه انتشارات و چاپ دانشگاه تهران.
النقی مهری، هادی. 1402. «تأثیرات انقلاب صنعتی چهارم در سازمان‌های دولتی و صنایع، چالش‌ها، فرصت‌ها، راهبردها». در مجموعه مقالات هشتمین همایش ملی تحقیقات میان‌رشته‌ای در علوم مهندسی و مدیریت، 334–348. 
امینی، میلاد، مصباحی‌نیا، علی‌محمد، و فرحی، سیدمهدی. 1402. «تجاری‌سازی قابلیت‌های دانشی برای فناوری‌های نوظهور در مراکز دانشگاهی و صنعتی». مدیریت و حسابداری در هزاره سوم، 25: 133–160.
امیری، مقصود، دارستانی فراهانی، احمد، و محبوب‌قدسی، مهسا. 1395. تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره. چاپ اول. تهران: انتشارات دانشگاهی کیان.
بابایی، علی، حمیدی‌مطلق، روح‌الله، ملکی، علی، و اشعاری، محسن. 1395. «در جست‌وجوی راه سوم در سیاست‌گذاری توسعه صنعتی». سیاستنامه علم و فناوری، 6(1): 3–24.
حیرانی، حسین، اکبری، محمدرضا، و همایون، محمدباقر. 1404. «پیشنهاد سیاست‌های کلی انرژی در حوزه صنعت و فناوری». نشریه بهبود مدیریت، 19(4، پیاپی 70): 1–33.
خالدی، آرمان، اسدی‌فرد، رضا، و میرزایی دورکی، سیدرضا. 1403. «کارکردهای واسطه‌های نوآوری در فرایند همکاری‌های فناورانه بین‌بنگاهی». سیاست علم و فناوری، 17(2): 17–32.
خاتمی فیروزآبادی، سیدمحمدعلی. 1394. تصمیم‌گیری چندشاخصه، روش‌ها و رویکردها. چاپ اول. تهران: انتشارات شربیانی.
سهرابی، روح‌الله، احدی، مهدی. 1396. فنون تصمیم‌گیری کمی در مدیریت (MIDM). چاپ اول. تهران: ترمه.
شکری، حمیدرضا، سادات رسول، سیدمهدی، اسدی‌فرد، رضا، و حسنی، سیدحمزه. 1401. «شناسایی ابزارهای سیاستی برای توسعه همکاری‌های فناورانه شرکت‌های بزرگ صنعتی با شرکت‌های دانش‌بنیان». مدیریت نوآوری، 11(2): 147–173.
عابدی جعفری، حسن، تسلیمی، محمدسعید، فقیهی، ابوالحسن، و شیخ‌زاده، محمد. 1390. «تحلیل مضمون و شبکه مضامین: روشی ساده و کارآمد برای تبیین الگوهای موجود در داده‌های کیفی». اندیشه مدیریت راهبردی، 5(2): 151–198.
فارسی، ابوالقاسم، منطقی، منوچهر، فارسی‌جانی، حسن، و والمحمدی امامچائی، چنگیز. 1399. «همپایی فناورانه در صنایع مبتنی‌بر سامانه‌های پیچیده: مطالعه موردی صنعت پتروشیمی ایران». فصلنامه بهبود مدیریت، 17(1، پیاپی 51): 1–38.
فاطمی، سیدمهدی، آراستی، محمدرضا. 1398. «اولویت‌گذاری حوزه‌های علم، فناوری و نوآوری». سیاست علم و فناوری، 11(2): 119–133.
لی، کئون، مالربا، فرانکو. 1395. «چرخه‌های همپایی و تغییرات در رهبری صنعتی: پنجره‌های فرصت و پاسخ بنگاه‌ها و کشورها در تکامل نظام‌های بخشی». ترجمه خان‌احمدلو، رضا، و مقدس، مسعود. سیاستنامه علم و فناوری، 6(3): 89–108.
محمدی فاتح، اصغر، ابراهیمی، سیدعباس. 1399. «شناسایی و رتبه‌بندی فناوری‌های اطلاعاتی نوظهور در بخش دفاعی-نظامی». آینده‌پژوهی دفاعی، 17: 143–171.
مجیدپور، مهدی، منوری، صدیقه. 1399. «اولویت‌گذاری فناوری‌های پیشرفته با معیارهای چندگانه». در مجموعه مقالات هفدهمین کنفرانس بین‌المللی مدیریت، 3014–3032.
ملکی، علی، نیلفروشان، هادی. 1403. «بررسی نقش واسطه‌های نوآوری در پذیرش فناوری‌های نوظهور در صنایع خودروسازی ایران». مدیریت صنعتی، 52: 3–36.
نصر اصفهانی، علیرضا، ناظمی، امیر، ملکی، عباس، و باقری‌مقدم، ناصر. 1401. «پیشنهاد یک مدل اولویت‌گذاری آینده‌پژوهانه علم و فناوری برای ایران براساس نظر خبرگان». راهبرد اجتماعی فرهنگی، 42: 2–40.
نظریان پاریزی، رضا، الهی‌فرد، احسان. 1398. «نقش مدیریت فناورانه صنایع کوچک در توسعه پایدار اقتصادی». پژوهش‌های نوین علوم انسانی، 8: 124–140.
 
Abedi Jafari, H., M. S. Taslimi, A. Faghihi, and M. Sheikhzadeh. 2011. “Thematic Analysis and Thematic Network: A Simple and Effective Method for Explaining Patterns in Qualitative Data.” Strategic Management Thought 5(2), Autumn and Winter: 151–198. [In Persian]
Asgharpoor, M.J. 1998. Multi-Criteria Decision Making. 1st ed. Tehran: University of Tehran Press. [In Persian]
Alnaghi Mehri, H. 2023. “Impacts of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on Public Organizations and Industries: Challenges, Opportunities, and Strategies.” In Proceedings of the Eighth National Conference on Interdisciplinary Research in Engineering and Management, 334–348. National Conference on Interdisciplinary Research. [In Persian]
Ali Asghar Abdeshahi, Hojjat Vahdati, Mohammad Hakkak. (2026). Industry as the Engine of Productivity in Iran’s Economy under Sanctions, Journal of improvement management,vol 20, Serial Number 72, 1-29. [in Persian].
Amini, M., A.-M. Mesbahinia, and S. M. Farahi. 2023. “Commercialization of Knowledge Capabilities for Emerging Technologies in Academic and Industrial Centers.” Management and Accounting in the Third Millennium 25: 133–160. [In Persian]  
Ambrose, M. 2024. “White House Tweaks List of Critical and Emerging Technologies.” https://ww2.aip.org/fyi/white-house-tweaks-list-of-critical-and-emerging-
Amiri, M., A. D. Farahani, and M. Mahboob-Ghodsi. 2016. Multi-Criteria Decision Making. 1st ed. Tehran: Kiyan Academic Publishing. [In Persian]
Babaei, A., R. Hamidi-Motlagh, A. Maleki, and M. Ashari. 2016. “In Search of the Third Way in Industrial Development Policy-Making.” Science and Technology Policy Journal 6(1), Spring: 3–24. [In Persian]
Bailey, D., A. Glasmeier, P. R. Tomlinson, and P. Tyler. 2019. “Industrial Policy: New Technologies and Transformative Innovation Policies?” Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society 12: 169–177.
Bengisu, M. 2003. “Critical and Emerging Technologies in Materials, Manufacturing, and Industrial Engineering: A Study for Priority Setting.” Scientometrics 58(3): 473–487   .
Boston Consulting Group (BCG). 2025. “Digital, Technology, and Data / Emerging Technologies.” https://www.bcg.com/capabilities/digital-technology-data/emerging-technologies
Bryukhovetskaya, N. Ye., and O. A. Chorna. 2019. “Intellectualization as a Priority Direction of Industrial Enterprise Development in the Conditions of Industry 4.0.” Science and Innovation (4)88. https://journals.uran.ua/2306-4412/article/view/185693
Cambridge Open Academy. 2025. “Top 10 Technology Trends in 2026 That Will Shape The Next Decade.” June 30. https://cambridgeopenacademy.com/top-10-technology-trends-in-2026/
Donor Committee for Enterprise Development. 2025. Industrial Policy. Accessed July 28, 2025. https://www.enterprise-development.org/implementing-psd/industrial-policy/
European Innovation Council. 2022. Identification of Emerging Technologies and Breakthrough Innovations. https://apre.it/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/EIC-Emerging-Tech-and-Breakthrough-Innov-report-2022-1502-final.pdf 
European Commission. 2021. Advanced Technologies for Industry – Sectoral Watch: Technological Trends in the Machinery Industry. Brussels: European Commission.
Fatemi, S. M., and M. Arasti. 2019. “Prioritization of Science, Technology, and Innovation Fields.” Science and Technology Policy 11(2), Summer Special Issue: 119–133. [In Persian]
Farsi, Abolghasem, Manteghi, Manouchehr, Farsi-Jani, Hassan, and Valmohammadi Emamchaei, Changiz. 2020. “Technological Catch-up in Complex Product Systems: A Case Study of Iran’s Petrochemical Industry.” Management Improvement Quarterly 17(1): 1–38. [In Persian]
Gartner. 2024. “Gartner Emerging Tech – Technology.” LinkedIn post. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/gartner_gartnerht-emergingtech-technology-activity-7175172553961828352-v_2z/
Gartner. 2025. “Emerging Technologies and Trends for Tech Product Leaders.” https://www.gartner.com/en/industries/high-tech/topics/emerging-tech-trends
He, J. 2023. “Government Role in Fostering Emerging Technological Industries: A New Perspective for Industrial Policy Research.” China Economist 18(5): 15–28. 
Heirani, Hossein, Akbari, Mohammad Reza, and Homayoun, Mohammad Bagher. 2025. “Proposed General Energy Policies in the Field of Industry and Technology.” Management Improvement Journal 19(4): 1–33. [In Persian]   
Igartua, J. I., J. Ganzarain, and D. Ibarra. 2020. “Identification and Prioritization of Industry 4.0 Projects in SMEs: A Process Approach.” In Advances in Engineering Networks, 53–60. Lecture Notes in Management and Industrial Engineering. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-41057-5_7
Irar, K. 2023. “Emerging Technologies, Pros and Cons.” LinkedIn, January 24. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/emerging-technologies-pros-cons-khaled-irar
Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge, and United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). 2013. Emerging Trends in Global Advanced Manufacturing: Challenges, Opportunities and Policy Responses. Cambridge, UK: University of Cambridge. https://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/uploads/Resources/Reports/UNIDO_FINAL_VERSION.pdf
Kang, J., J.-S. Kim, and S. Seol. 2019. “The Prioritization of Technologies and Public R&D Roles between the Manufacturing and Service Industries in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.” Foresight 21(6). https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-11-2018-0094
Khaledi, A., R. Asadifard, and S. R. Mirzaei Douraki. 2024. “Functions of Innovation Intermediaries in the Process of Inter-Firm Technological Collaboration.” Science and Technology Policy 17(2): 17–32. [In Persian]
Khatami Firouzabadi, S. M. A. 2015. Multi-Attribute Decision Making: Methods and Approaches. 1st ed. Tehran: Sharbiani Publications. [In Persian]
Kim, W., S. K. Han, K. J. Oh, T. Y. Kim, H. Ahn, and C. Song. 2010. “The Dual Analytic Hierarchy Process to Prioritize Emerging Technologies.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77(4): 566–577. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.12.008
Lapadat, J. C., N. E. Black, P. G. Clark, R. M. Gremm, L. W. Karanja, L. W. Mieke, and L. Quinlan. 2010. “Life Challenge Memory Work: Using Collaborative Autobiography  .”  
Lee, K., and F. Malerba. 2016. “Catching-Up Cycles and Changes in Industrial Leadership: Windows of Opportunity and Firms’ and Countries’ Responses in Sectoral System Evolution.” Translated by R. Khanahmadlou and M. Moghaddas. Science and Technology Policy Journal 6(3): 89–108. [In Persian]
Maleki, A., and H. Nilforoushan. 2024. “The Role of Innovation Intermediaries in the Adoption of Emerging Technologies in Iran’s Automotive Industry.” Industrial Management (University of Tehran) 52: 3–36. [In Persian]
Majidpour, M., and S. Monavari. 2020. “Prioritization of Advanced Technologies Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making.” 17th International Management Conference, 3014–3032. [In Persian] 
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 2024. 10 Emerging Technologies That Will Change Your World. https://thz.mit.edu/documents/10_emerging_tech.pdf
Mohammadi Fateh, A., and S. A. Ebrahimi. 2020. “Identification and Ranking of Emerging Information Technologies in the Defense-Military Sector.” Defensive Futures Studies 17: 143–171. [In Persian]
Nasr Esfahani, A., A. Nazemi, A. Maleki, and N. Bagheri-Moghadam. 2022. “A Proposed Foresight-Based Model for Science and Technology Prioritization in Iran Based on Expert Opinions.” Socio-Cultural Strategy 42: 2–40. [In Persian]
Nazarian Parizi, R., and E. Elahi-Fard. 2019. “The Role of Technological Management of Small Industries in Sustainable Economic Development.” Modern Researches in Humanities 8: 124–140. [In Persian]
Nimawat, D., and B. D. Gidwani. 2020. “Prioritization of Important Factors towards the Status of Industry 4.0 Implementation Utilizing AHP and ANP Techniques.” Benchmarking: An International Journal 28(2). https://doi.org/10.1108/BIJ-06-2020-0302
OECD. 2025. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2025: Driving Change in a Shifting Landscape. Paris: OECD Publishing.
Radhakrishnan, A. 2024. “Top 12 Global Megatrends [2025–2030]: The Forces Driving Tomorrow’s Business Decisions.” StartUs Insights, February 27. Accessed June 7, 2025. https://www.startus-insights.com/innovators-guide/global-megatrends-full-guide/
Rotolo, D., D. Hicks, and B. R. Martin. 2015. “What Is an Emerging Technology?” Research Policy. [Manuscript accepted for publication, Version: July 7, 2015]
Shokri, H. R., S. M. S. Rasoul, R. Asadifard, and S. H. Hasani. 2022. “Identification of Policy Instruments for Promoting Technological Cooperation Between Large Industrial Enterprises and Knowledge-Based Firms.” Innovation Management 11(2): 147–173. [In Persian]
Saeid Ghorbani, Majid Ramazan, mohammad javad karami borujeni.(2026).Conceptual Model of Conflict-of-Interest Management in Data Governance,Journal of improvement management, vol 20, Serial Number 71, 121-156. [in Persian].
SGU (Swiss German University). 2020. Challenges in Industry and Emerging Technology Trends for the Future. Swiss German University.
Sohrabi, R., and M. Ahadi. 2017. Quantitative Decision-Making Techniques in Management (MIDM). 1st ed. Tehran: Termeh Publications. [In Persian]
Schindowski, R., et al. 2026. Industrial Policy and Technology Linkages: Conceptualizing China’s Approach. VIVES Discussion Paper.   
Song, D. 2021. “Thinking on Development of Emerging Industries of Strategic Importance in New Stage.” Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version) 36(3): 328–335.  
Yee, L., M. Chui, R. Roberts, and S. Smit. 2025. McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook 2025 (Fifth edition, July 22, 2025). https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-top-trends-in-tech#/
World Economic Forum. 2020. Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020. https://www.weforum.org/publications/top-10-emerging-technologies-2020/
World Economic Forum. 2021. Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2021. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Top_10_Emerging_Technologies_of_2021.pdf
World Economic Forum. 2022. “5 Tech Trends to Watch in 2022.” https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/01/tech-trends-in-2022/
World Economic Forum. 2023. Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2023. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Top_10
World Economic Forum. 2024. Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2024. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Top_10_Emerging_Technologies_of_2024.pdf
European Commission. 2021. Advanced Technologies for Industry – Sectoral Watch: Technological Trends in the Machinery Industry. Brussels: European Commission

  • Receive Date 02 November 2025
  • Revise Date 23 July 2026
  • Accept Date 27 July 2026