Delay in Oil Projects: Review of Past Developments and Provide a Model for Predicting Delay Time- Case Study: EPC Projects of the POGC

Document Type : Research Article (Original Article)

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran ,Tehran, Iran.

2 MSc. in Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran ,Tehran, Iran.

3 PhD candidate of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran ,Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Projects play an important role in various organizations, especially in project and executive organizations, but currently, projects especially industrial projects are associated with time delays. Predicting the time delay in carrying out oil projects is of particular importance. It is beneficial because of the 25% role of the oil industry in GDP and 85% in the share of exports and the average delay of 30% in EPC projects. In this research, the most important factors affecting time delay of the projects and the rules, which shows reasons of the delay are identified. The data were collected from the database of contracts and projects sector of South Pars Oil and Gas Company. Two hundred six projects were selected and considering different criteria, the time delay were predicted. Five decision tree algorithms were used to predict the project time delay, including C&R, C5, CHILD, QUEST, and AS. Validation results showed C5 and CHILD three algorithms are the bests with the accuracy of about 91%.

Keywords

Journal of Improvement Management
Volume 13, Issue 4 - Serial Number 46
February 2020
Pages 147-164

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History

  • Receive Date: 24 July 2019
  • Revise Date: 22 April 2020
  • Accept Date: 22 April 2020

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